The Conflict Tree: A Tool for Analyzing Conflict Choices and Consequences Image Parts of the Tree The conflict tree symbolizes the core elements of any conflict, including its causes and its effects on the parties and on the wider community and environment. The roots of the tree (suggested by the shadow in this picture) are the direct and indirect causes of the conflict: unmet or competing wants, needs, and perceptions of each party, and systemic injustice problems (especially cultural exclusion based on bias, and unfair social-structural distribution of resources and access to power) that exacerbate the risks and the harm to the less-powerful parties. The tree’s trunk represents the system’s processes for handling the conflict (see peacemaking and peacebuilding section for examples). The tree’s branches represent the choices (violent or non-violent) for handling the conflict. How are the concerns of the affected parties addressed by this action or proposal? — democratically making and building peace by solving problems together, or violently destroying? The leaves and fruit of the tree represent the consequences of conflict actions. These conflict consequences can be negative (direct violence and indirect exploitation) or positive (peacemaking resolution and durable peacebuilding transformation). Peacebuilding citizenship education nurtures people’s capabilities to nurture the tree: recognizing its (un-)health, ensuring that all of its roots get resources such as water, sunshine, healthy soil, and good relationships with other life in its environment, to enable handling conflicts non-violently to build durable just peace (growing a healthy tree). The goal of this teaching resource is to help students and teachers to build this range of capabilities, to nurture healthy roots and to grow fruits of peace in your schools, communities, and world. Superimposed on the conflict tree image is the comprehensive peacebuilding triangle, presented earlier. This shows the roots of the conflict tree that are nourishing the escalation to violence (or de-escalation toward peace). These roots of conflict, represented by the base of the triangle, include the intangible motivations of culture such as language, nationalism and history and the tangible motivations of resource access and (military-economic) power that are embedded in socially-structured hierarchies. The branches of the conflict tree are the action decisions made by participants in each country’s political system. The fruits at the ends of those branches are the consequences of each action. Analyzing the elements, viewpoints, and consequences of any conflict problem can help students to recognize the parties involved and their interests, immediate causes and deeper systemic causes of disagreement and harm, and the consequences of various conflict-handling choices for each party, from multiple points of view. Based on the understanding they gain through such conflict analysis, learners may invent and consider possible ways to overcome, resolve, or heal the problem. Conflict tree decision analysis can be applied to many conflicts, including the examples above offered by teachers participating in the research project, to help learners to make sense of the needs and desires of each party and the potential consequences of their conflict choices. Conflict Tree Sample Here is a sample conflict tree analysis, to understand the conflicts and options animating the war in Ukraine, from contrasting perspectives. This example focuses on the Russian government and its allies and the Ukrainian government and its allies, at the time Russia decided to invade Ukraine to take over some of its territory and Ukraine decided to request armaments from Western powers and to fight militarily to retain its territory and sovereignty, and after the resulting war has continued to result in much pain and death, as well as economic hardship, on both sides and beyond. Although any of the parties, on this list and beyond, have been affected by (and are having an effect on) this armed conflict, illustrated is a simple analysis using just the conflict decision trees of the two governments: Russia and Ukraine. One conflict tree asks, Why did the Russian military invade Ukraine (dominating Ukraine’s province of Crimea in 2014, and invading more areas of Ukraine in 2022)? The other conflict tree asks, Why (in 2022 more than in 2014) did the Ukrainian military request armaments from Western powers and refuse to give up this territory (where many of the citizens speak Russian) without fighting a war? Participants read reliable sources to name the social-systemic (power relations) and cultural (language and history) factors making up the roots of this conflict, and to name the action options open to the leaders of each country and their probable (or already visible) consequences. After constructing together each conflict tree analysis, the group should compare the two parties’ trees, and reflect about their potential options for resolving the conflicts that have caused this war. More resources regarding the Russian-Ukraine conflict are available in the Peacebuilding Lessons Integrating Multiple Subject Areas. Using the Conflict Tree: Understanding the Conflicts Embedded in the War in Ukraine Stakeholder: The Russian government and its allies ROOTS: Resources, Equity and Diversity What issues cause and exacerbate the problem, according to each party? Control over natural resources, such as natural gas, agricultural production, ores and minerals Control over shipping ports (sea & river) Political corruption prevalent in those countries Expansion of more NATO fronts with Russia, since 1999 BRANCHES: Participation & Decisions How has the conflict been handled? What alternative choices exist? Escalate Violence Continue the war until one party wins (violence) De-escalate Violence Call for a truce, then start a negotiation process highlighting the interests of each party. LEAVES and FRUIT: Consequences for each party During-War Continuing the violence to gain more power and resources in the region Winning this war means Russia can attempt to invade other ex-Soviet neighbouring countries Capitalizing on the support and immigration of some Ukrainians who are pro-Russia. Dealing with the economic sanctions imposed by the west. The monetary and humanitarian costs of running the war. Reviving anti-western sentiments in Russia Risk of using nuclear weapon Post-War Change Ukraine’s borders (e.g. Russia’s Black Sea access) Dealing with the aftermath of war in terms of injured soldiers, trauma, etc. Facing war crimes for atrocities committed in Ukraine. Enhancing nuclear weaponry Resume economic activities with NATO allies, for example exporting natural gas to Germany Alleviate the economic and humanitarian cost of the war. Revive cooperation with Soviet allies Stakeholder: Ukrainian government and its allies ROOTS: Resources, Equity and Diversity What issues cause and exacerbate the problem, according to each party? Historical ties between Ukraine & Russia A lot of Ukrainians speak Russian and have very strong ties with them. Lack of trust between the Russia and the West, and between Russia and Ukraine Circulation of misinformation, difficulty of accessing reliable information (in some countries worse than others) BRANCHES: Participation & Decisions How has the conflict been handled? What alternative choices exist? Escalate Violence Continue the war until one party wins (violence) NATO or other armed forces join (escalate) the armed conflict De-escalate Violence Negotiate with Russia in order to de-escalate the conflict. Address the interests of both parties and try to reach a truce and then a fair negotiated agreement to stop the war. LEAVES and FRUIT: Consequences for each party During-War Destruction of cities, towns, and infrastructure Economic paralysis due to war, using resources for fighting Outpouring of civilians as refugees to neighbouring European countries Post-War Cleaning up and rebuilding Dealing with the huge economic losses and seeking financial and material support from supporting nations to rebuild the country Allowing Ukraine to focus on economic stability and growth after their GDP fell by 35% Negotiate territorial borders and security for Ukraine Image Image